Japan’s Sept Factory Production is expected to drop for the first time since April.

© Stocksak. FILE PHOTO – A worker rides near a factory in the Keihin industrial area in Kawasaki (Japan), February 28, 2017. REUTERS/Issei Kato

TOKYO, Stocksak – Japanese factories cut back their output in September, a Stocksak poll found on Friday. This ended a three month streak of growth on a tailwind from China’s strict COVID-19 measures and reduced supply bottlenecks.

According to the poll, the median forecast of 17 economists was that industrial production will fall by 1% in September compared to the previous month.

According to economists at SMBC Nikko Securities, the growth in “transport machinery and related industries may have reached an adjustment stage.” Citing export data, they said that September’s output drop would not be significant as general machinery production was still strong.

Toyota Motor (NYSE) Corp, the largest carmaker in the world, announced Friday that its global production grew by 30% in the September quarter. However, it said that the semiconductor shortage continues to weigh on the company, especially at its domestic plants.

A Stocksak corporate survey found that Japanese manufacturers are feeling worsening in recent months, due to concerns about rising costs and a weaker yen.

Takeshi Minami (chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute) stated that industrial production will likely be affected by inflation and slowdowns in other countries.

Separate data is expected show that retail sales rose 4.1% in September compared to a year ago, extending the annual growth rate for a seventh consecutive month since March, when all coronavirus curbs were lifted by the government.

Japan’s economic opening, which was coupled with relaxed border controls for foreign tourists, has led to a consumption-led recovery. However, three-decade-high inflation makes it difficult to see further gains. Stocksak polled analysts expecting a 2.0% increase in Japan’s gross domestic product after a strong 3.5% annualized growth in April-June.

The government will release factory output data and retail sales data at 8.50 a.m. on October 31 (2350 GMT, October 30).

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